Bank Indonesia (BI), in its Retail Sales Survey released on Tuesday (10 November 2026), recorded that retail sales in September 2026 grew by only 0.6% year on year (yoy), slowing from 1.3% yoy in August 2026. On a monthly basis, retail sales contracted by 3.1% month to month (mtm), reversing the 0.8% mtm growth of the previous month. BI attributed the weakness to demand normalising after the Independence Day celebration period.
Key points
- Annual growth in September 2026 was supported by the spare parts and accessories group (up 5.3% yoy) and the other goods group (up 3.7% yoy).
- The food, beverages and tobacco group grew 1.3% yoy, lower than in the previous period.
- For October 2026, BI projects the Real Sales Index (IPR) to reach 221.8, or 1.0% yoy growth, alongside a 1.0% monthly increase. Drivers include motor vehicle fuel, spare parts and accessories, and food, beverages and tobacco.
Price expectations rising
The same survey shows retailers expect price pressures to increase in the coming months. The General Price Expectations Index (IEH) for December 2026 stood at 165.0, higher than 149.9 in the previous survey. For March 2027, the IEH was 180.2, up from 177.9. The higher expectations are in line with the year-end demand season.
Impact on businesses
For retailers and suppliers, the data signal that purchasing power remains fragile once seasonal momentum fades, while expected price increases towards year-end should be factored into inventory planning, pricing and cash flow. Businesses should also consider the tax implications, such as adjusting Article 25 income tax instalments if turnover falls significantly, and managing output and input VAT during the December peak sales period.
Need support with tax and cash flow planning for the year-end? Contact Hanna Consulting for further consultation.
Sources: ANTARA · CNBC Indonesia · Bank Indonesia (rilis September)
