The rupiah came under renewed pressure on Wednesday (11/11/2026). In the spot market, the currency closed at Rp18,149 per US dollar, down 87 points or 0.48% from the previous day's close of Rp18,062. Bank Indonesia's (BI) JISDOR reference rate also fell 0.52% to Rp18,154 per US dollar. Market participants held back ahead of the MSCI index review, whose results were finally released early on Thursday (12/11), Indonesian time.
What drove the decline
- The US dollar strengthened after US inflation data came in higher than expected, reinforced by hawkish remarks from several Federal Reserve officials.
- Domestic and foreign investors turned cautious while awaiting MSCI's decision. Lukman Leong, Chief Analyst at Doo Financial Futures, also cited domestic political uncertainty as a source of pressure.
- For Thursday's (12/11) trading, Lukman expected the rupiah to fluctuate within a range of Rp18,100–Rp18,200 per US dollar.
MSCI's November 2026 review
MSCI removed two Indonesian stocks from the MSCI Global Standard Indexes: PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) and PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS), with BRMS moving to the Small Cap segment. Seven other stocks were deleted from the MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes: AVIA, CTRA, MTEL, EMTK, JSMR, RAJA and WIFI. No Indonesian stocks were added to the Global Standard index. The changes take place as of the close of trading on 30 November 2026, effective 1 December 2026.
The decision comes amid a consultation MSCI opened on 16 October 2026 on a proposal to reclassify Indonesia's equity market from emerging market to standalone market status, with a final decision scheduled no later than 30 June 2027.
What businesses should watch
- Portfolio adjustments by index-tracking investors ahead of 1 December could trigger capital outflows and add pressure on the rupiah.
- BI has previously stated it will maintain exchange-rate stability through interventions in the spot market, domestic non-deliverable forwards (DNDF), offshore NDF, and purchases of government bonds (SBN) in the secondary market.
- Companies with foreign-currency debt, imports or affiliated transactions should monitor foreign-exchange risk, including its impact on accounting records and tax calculations.
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Sources: Kontan (rupiah 11/11) · Katadata · ANTARA · Kontan (MSCI) · CNBC Indonesia · Investortrust
