Indonesia's tax ratio in the narrow sense for January–September 2026 is estimated at 9.49% of nominal gross domestic product (GDP), up from 8.58% in the same period of 2025. The figure is Kontan's own calculation based on Ministry of Finance and Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data, published on Sunday (8/11/2026), comparing tax revenue of Rp1,847.7 trillion against nominal GDP of Rp19,480.7 trillion.
Key points
- Net tax revenue through September 2026 reached Rp1,607.6 trillion, up 24.1% year on year, or 68.2% of the 2026 State Budget (APBN) target of Rp2,357.7 trillion.
- VAT and luxury-goods sales tax (PPnBM) grew 38.6% to Rp683.3 trillion, while oil and gas income tax jumped 128.2% to Rp43.6 trillion.
- Tax refunds (restitution) paid through September 2026 totalled Rp198.71 trillion, down about 38.7% from Rp323.92 trillion in the same period of 2025.
What is driving it?
Analysts hold differing views. Ariawan Rahmat, Executive Director of the IEF Research Institute, argues that the higher tax ratio is driven mainly by lower refund payments and strong oil and gas revenue rather than a broader tax base. He projects the full-year 2026 tax ratio at 9.8%–10.4%, below the APBN target of 10.48%. Meanwhile, Wahyu Nuryanto, Executive Director of the MUC Tax Research Institute, points to tax base expansion through digital tax collection and better use of the Coretax system, along with economic activity supporting corporate income tax. CITA analyst Fajry Akbar also highlights the Directorate General of Taxes' (DJP) increased issuance of SP2DK data-clarification letters.
What taxpayers should note
The DJP has stressed that refunds are a taxpayer's right to recover overpaid tax and continue to be processed in accordance with the regulations. Even so, taxpayers seeking refunds should prepare complete supporting documents and factor processing time into their cash-flow planning. Taxpayers should also respond to SP2DK letters on time and with consistent data.
Need assistance with a tax refund or responding to an SP2DK? Contact Hanna Consulting for a consultation.
Sources: Kontan (pengamat IEF & CITA) · Kontan (MUC) · DDTCNews · Kontan (restitusi)
